DAR AL HARB/ISLAM - U.S.A./IRAN: PRESIDENT BUSH DECIDED TO RELEASE THE N.I.E. REPORT - - - A WHITE FLAG SIGNAL TO IRAN

Bush's deal with Iran: No U.S. attack in exchange for end to Iraqi Shiite violence

...

"It's close to zero percent chance that the Bush administration will authorize military action against Iran before leaving office," said former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, last week.

The release of the National Intelligence Estimate in December, decided by Bush, was deemed as the biggest signal to Iran of U.S. intentions. The NIE said that Tehran has halted its nuclear weapons program--at least for the time being. For his part, Bush won Iran's commitment to prevent Shiite violence in what would enable the U.S.-led coalition to focus on al Qaeda and the Sunni insurgency and lead to a troop withdrawal by 2009.

"The release of the NIE was a decision by Bush to show Iran that he would not order an attack," said a U.S. intelligence source familiar with administration strategy. "U.S. forces in the Gulf have also been ordered to refrain from provoking Iran."

The sources said Bush was persuaded by Defense Secretary Robert Gates and the Joint Chiefs of Staff that the U.S. military was under-manned and under-equipped for a sustained conflict with Iran. They said the intelligence community warned Bush that it could not identify most Iranian nuclear facilities, which would discount the prospect of a massive yet brief air campaign.

...



Pertinent Links:

1) Bush's deal with Iran: No U.S. attack in exchange for end to Iraqi Shiite violence

2) N.I.E. Report (the declassified portions)