Opinion found in Dar Al Hayat
Ayoon Wa Azan ( Sharing the Spoils )
Jihad el-Khazen Al-Hayat
I heard from American journalists in whom I have full confidence that the Bush administration has decided to deal Iran a military blow limited to 'surgical' air raids, i.e. very precise ones, aimed at destroying its nuclear facilities. Indeed, this administration has become absolutely convinced that Iran will not willingly stop uranium enrichment. Add to this the other controversial issues such as Iran's role in the violence sweeping over Iraq, its support of 'terrorism', and the competition for power in the Gulf and the entire region.
In dealing with the present American administration, on needs to tackle platitudes, such as health is better than sickness. I believe that if George Bush is left alone to solve the problems of health insurance in the United States, he will come up with a plan that prevents the Americans from falling sick. But I leave this American problem to the people concerned and I consider some of the platitudes that the whole world sees whereas the administration in Washington ignores. Some people in the administration are as ignorant as the president while others are like his deputy the warmonger who deliberately calls for war.
From among the platitudes of the Iranian issue on can mention the following:
- Iran will proceed with uranium enrichment and all the negotiations conducted with it so far have been aimed at gaining time. If Iran did not stop its nuclear program after the Security Council had imposed sanctions on it in December 2006 and last March, it will not stop simply because of a threat to adopt a third resolution imposing sanctions on it.
- Iran is stronger than the United States in Iraq and the Shiite majority is cooperating with it under occupation, and the cooperation will increase after the occupation. Iranian intelligence services are active in Iraq, especially in the south.
- Iran will not help the Bush administration save itself in Iraq. I do not understand how the American administration can ask Teheran for help and even have a meeting for ambassadors and officials and ask for the formation of security committees. On the one hand, each of Iran and the United States want to expel each other from Iraq, and on the other hand there is a declared American foreign policy. Accordingly, Iran belongs to the 'evil axis' and the administration wants to have a regime change in Teheran. Then it rudely and 'stupidly' asks the Iranian regime for help in achieving success in Iraq.
- There are only two options in case American planes raided Iranian nuclear sites. It either succeeds and destroys them in such a way that Iran is prevented from producing nuclear bombs, or it fails and Iran will manufacture the bomb after a delay. The United States will lose if it succeeds because Iran will wage a war against it all over the region. It will lose more if the blow is abortive because Iran will ultimately have a nuclear bomb that carries behind it all grudges of the world against 'the greatest Satan', not just from the Shiites of Iran but also from the Shiites all over the world. I apologize for the repetition. I once said and I say now that the Shiites will then keep hitting their chests for 1500 years and say 'America attacked us.'
- Iran does not constitute any threat to the United States and not even to Israel. Any American blow will be delivered on behalf of Israel and thus America will once again attack Muslims and kill them. If American does not attack Iran, Israel might do and the result will be the same as Iran regards both as the same thing.
- Iran is backing the Shiite militias in Iraq with money, training and armor-penetrating explosives. I even do not rule out any link with Al-Qaeda, but American charges in this regard are another platitude which serves only to show that the Americans are suffering in Iraq and their conditions are getting worse. Consequently they are placing the responsibility on Iran and sometimes Syria and others.
- The Arab Gulf countries are the only ones who have the right to worry about or maybe fear Iranian greed in the region which goes back to ancient Persian imperial times and still persists today.
- If Iran possesses a nuclear bomb, it will launch a nuclear armament race, and Saudi Arabia and Egypt and other Arab countries will seek the possession of nuclear arms either by manufacturing or by buying them, and Turkey may also try to follow suit.
I stop here to say that each of the above platitudes is crystal clear and I do not see why the Bush administration ignores them. Nor do I understand the insistence of Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyiar Zibari to have both parties meet. He was behind the first and second meetings and it seems that he believes in the usefulness of a security subcommittee and thinks it will contribute to defusing the situation in Iraq.
Hoshyiar is a dear friend and I support his work, yet I find the attempt at reconciling the Bush administration and the Iranian regime headed by Ayatollah Khamenei, not by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a kind of a futile act. Each of the two countries has a craving for controlling the region known for the weakness of its states, their disunity and disagreements, in addition to the existence of enormous resources the whole world wishes to command.
There is information on the intention of the Bush administration to strike Iran a blow after the summer. In the event it does, it will enflame the entire region, or Israel might do the job, and the Arabs will lose in both cases. If no military blow is dealt to Iran the reason could be an American-Iranian agreement to share the spoils and so the Arabs will lose once again.
It is interesting to note the "origin" of this mans 'sources'...
Pertinent Links:
1) Ayoon Wa Azan ( Sharing the Spoils )
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