DAR AL HARB/ISLAM - THE WEST/IRAN: THE U.S. JUST DOESN'T GET IT WHEN IT COMES TO IRAN

'US hasn't yet grasped Iran threat'
By HILARY LEILA KRIEGER

The Bush administration's indecision about what it wants to see in Iran - regime change or behavior change - is hurting its ability to plan effective military steps or engage in persuasive diplomacy, according to a top Iran expert.

Ilan Berman, speaking at the conservative Hudson Institute on Tuesday, said that the US hasn't made that choice because it "hasn't yet grasped the fundamental threat to American interests" posed by Iran.

That also leads to some divergence between America and Israel in their sense of urgency and "how much time is left" for dealing with Iran, he said.

Though both see 2009 as the crucial date when it comes to Iranian mastery of nuclear capabilities, according to Berman, the US sees some room for rolling back the program - as it pressed Libya to do - while Israel sees it getting "harder and harder" to stop Iran's nuclear efforts.

When it comes to the choice between regime and behavior change, Berman counseled the Bush administration to focus on the former.

"I would not be a behavior modifier," said Berman, who has consulted for the government in the past and now serves as the vice president for policy at the Washington-based American Foreign Policy Council.

"I would think that any sober person" looking at the social and economic unrest in Iran today "would have to bet even money on the generation that's coming up," he said.

He noted that two-thirds of Iranian population is under 35, and that the youth are particularly dissatisfied with the regime.

And a rare public opinion poll of Iranians conducted recently showed that far fewer Iranians said it was as important to develop nuclear arms as a long-term goal as it was to strengthen the economy and normalize diplomatic and trade relations with the West.

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1) 'US hasn't yet grasped Iran threat'