Iran unlikely to make internal, external changes because of sanctions -- experts
By Ronald Baygents
The Iranian regime is well-entrenched, and the US-led effort to impose even more UN sanctions against the regime over its nuclear program exacerbates the paranoia of Iranian leaders, leading to tougher internal crackdowns.
That was a key conclusion of two scholars during a Brookings Institution forum entitled "Internal Politics and Unrest in Iran." US leaders should abandon the idea that the Iranian regime is on its last legs, because the regime makes its own survival the priority above all else, said Suzanne Maloney, senior fellow of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings.
UN sanctions targeting Tehran over its uranium enrichment program have exacerbated internal tensions in Iran, leading to rising public discontent over Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's handling of the economy, including gasoline rationing.
The regime has responded by unleashing the most serious crackdown on Iranian society since the Iranian student unrest of 1999, Maloney said. The crackdown has included arrests, the shuttering of news organizations, bans on teaching by some professors and tough measures against women's rights activists, with some being sentenced to two to three years in prison as well as lashings -- even when the number of protesters amounted to no more than 50 to 100 people, Maloney noted.
"The message is no one is safe from this crackdown," Maloney said.
While the first two years of the term of Ahmadinejad were focused on reigning in members of the opposition among the Iranian elite, the President and his circle have now chosen to ensure no prospect for development of a nationally organized opposition campaign, because they see Iran as under siege, she said.
The regime leaders have a deep-seated fear of external forces seeking regime change, she added.
Although he is not the ultimate decision-maker, Ahmadinejad has been much more influential than any of his recent predecessors not only because of regional conflicts, such as the Iraq war and Lebanon war last summer, but also because of his personality and political skills, Maloney said.
Ahmadinejad "pursues his agenda fiercely," and he is "audacious, bold and forceful," she said. His presidency is oriented around regime security, and he acts in an almost royal fashion, handing out oil revenues, traveling the country widely and frequently, and receiving some 7.5 million letters from the Iranian public, she noted.
The Iranian presidency is not constitutionally powerful, but Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khameini has been much more supportive of the President than was anticipated, and in fact is fully in the corner of Ahmadinejad, Maloney said.
One reason is because Ahmadinejad strongly promotes Islamic values, and another is the belief among all top regime leaders that the United States is permanently opposed to the regime, she said.
Karim Sadjadpour, associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, agreed, and said that Khameini also "likes it that Ahmadinejad makes him look moderate." Another helpful development for the President is that the three or four main conservative factions within Iran have splintered over various issues, weakening their ability to challenge Ahmadinejad in a united front, Maloney said.
However, there is dissension among supporters of the President, particularly over his disastrous economic policies compounded by US-led efforts to dissuade international investment in Iran, she said.
While it was a risky move to impose gas rationing, the regime felt it had to act due to spiraling consumption and massive imports, Maloney said. Iranian leaders also see the move as a "pre-emptive austerity measure in case of a war with the US," she said.
The regime was also willing to take the action because it does not see itself as vulnerable, as many others do, she added.
Sadjadpour, who covered the 2005 Iranian elections, noted that Ahmadinejad downplayed his social conservatism during the campaign, expressing little concern about women's dress and showing of their hair, for example.
But Ahmadinejad has decided to pander to conservative and security-minded elements of Iranian society, including members of the Revolutionary Guard, who are rewarded big contracts, Sadjadpour noted. These elements benefit from the oil black market, and work to scuttle a US-Iranian dialogue, since they do not see that as in their interests, he added.
"They see their hand in the region as strong right now," Sadjadpour said. "Oil prices are soaring.
They are strong in Lebanon, and they do not want a US Embassy to reopen in Tehran" -- perhaps because they do not want people to see long lines that might form by those wishing to apply for exit visas.
However, the regime does want the United States to acknowledge the key role of Iran in the Middle East, he said.
Taking a Machiavellian approach, the regime believes that instilling fear in the population enhances national security, Sadjadpour said.
The regime also believes that they attain more security by taking a "pro-active" approach in the region, and Iran has sent one billion to 1.5 billion dollars to Hezbollah in Lebanon since 1980, he noted.
Moderate and reformist forces in Iran are less strident, but the question is how many of them will be allowed to run in the 2008 Parliamentary elections, Sadjadpour said.
Another element that helps more conservative elements of the regime is that while Tehran has always been seen as the political heart and soul of Iran -- and the place where residents have more satellite communications -- only one-third of the residents of Tehran went to the polls in 2004, compared to 50 percent who voted in rural Iran, he said. This trend is expected to continue in 2008, he added.
Sadjadpour said the intensity of international pressure against Iran, including UN sanctions, only entrenches Iranian hard-liners. Letting the regime know it faces a robust international coalition that is unified is more important than the next set of sanctions in terms of potentially influencing the behavior of the regime, he said.
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1 comment:
We forget that these things are still going on because we hear more about celebrities and local political scandals anymore. Thanks for posting this. Even though it's kind of scary.
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