DAR AL ISLAM: ARAB MOSLEM LEADERS ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE SYRIA/IRAN AXIS & THEIR MACHINATIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Arab leaders uneasy over Hamas victory in Gaza
By Michael Slackman

CAIRO: The fight over control of the Gaza Strip has frightened Arab leaders because it was characterized by the same dynamics that have been roiling the region. It pitted a Western-backed leadership in power for years against a newly empowered, radical Islamist group aligned with Syria and Iran.

The Western-backed group lost and the Iranian-Syrian group won, again.

That outcome demonstrated the rising threat to the status quo posed by political Islam in places like Cairo, Amman and Riyadh. And it gave Iran yet another foothold on Arab borders.

"We have a big problem here that is much deeper," said Abdel Moneim Said, director of the state-financed Ahram Center for Strategic and Political Studies in Cairo. "It is related to the bankruptcy of the shape of the modern Arab political entity and its inability really to convince the people with where they are going. Then you have the success of the other side, like Hamas, in making a clearer, simpler message."

As the shock has set in, the Western-friendly governments of the region have tried to spin victory from defeat. They have fallen in squarely behind Mahmoud Abbas and his emergency government in the West Bank, offering money and support. There is even a talk of emotional relief over the division among Palestinians, because it has ended the gridlock created after Hamas won control of the Parliament and government in free elections.

"At the official level, I would say it is seen as a relief," said Randa Habib, a political analyst and journalist in the Jordanian capital, Amman. "Things were totally at a standstill. I won't say they wished this happened. But it is not very far from that."

Egypt quickly moved to isolate Hamas. It relocated its diplomatic offices from Gaza to Ramallah in the West Bank. It also doubled efforts to tighten the security seal around Gaza. The goal was to quickly demonstrate that siding with the status quo would bring economic prosperity and a greater chance of a Palestinian state. The goal was also to squeeze Hamas into accepting a regional formula defined by peace between Arabs and Israel, and alliance with the West.

"Abbas is accepted by all the Arabs," said Mohammad Abdullah al-Zulfa, a member of Saudi Arabia's Shura Council, an advisory body with no legislative authority. "I think all the Arabs are with Abbas because all Arabs are with the peace initiative. The whole world is behind Abbas."

But of course it is not that simple. Not all of the Arabs are with Abbas, and not all the Arabs support peace with Israel. The challenge posed by this crisis is the challenge Arab leaders have faced as they have tried to resuscitate their legitimacy and slow a rising tide of political Islam. Egypt is struggling to hold down the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood. Jordan is struggling to hold down the Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the brotherhood. Much of the region has been roiled by Al Qaeda-minded terrorist groups.

As a result, Arab states, with the exception of Syria, have pushed for peace between Israel and the Palestinians as the first and most essential step to stabilizing the region, securing their own rule and countering Iran's rising influence. That agenda, however, aggravates a divide between the rulers in places like Cairo and Amman, and the street, where anti-American sentiment is widespread and Israel-as-the-enemy is a given.

It has, in a sense become a race to see which comes first, a successful peace process that can help secure the leadership of those now in charge, or the growth of a political Islamist movement that can stop the peace process in its tracks and crack the foundations of the status quo.

The conflict between the Palestinians is another lap in that race. "There are two constants in the Arab street: hatred toward Israel and hatred toward the U.S.," said Hassan Abu Hanieh, a Jordanian researcher with expertise on Islamist groups. "These are two firm facts. They don't change and anybody who cooperates with Israel and the U.S. is automatically hated."

There is a bit of hedging going on, part of the race, as one side hopes that a prosperous West Bank will lead to peace and the other hopes that a stable Gaza will continue to erode the footing beneath those allied with the West.

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1) Arab leaders uneasy over Hamas victory in Gaza