DAR AL HARB/ISLAM - U.S.A./RUSSIA/TURKEY: WITH PUTIN'S SUGGESTION OF LOCATING MISSILE DEFENSE IN TURKEY, HE INTENDS ON KILLING TWO BIRDS W/ONE STONE

Putin’s Provocation
BY SEMIH IDIZ

MILLIYET- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s suggestion that the US might locate its planned missile defense system in Turkey ‘against the threat of Iran’ should be considered a provocation. Obviously, with this initiative Putin wants to kill two birds with one stone. First he aims to steer the US away from such former Soviet satellites as Poland and the Czech Republic and so continue to exercise influence on these countries. Although they are European Union members, these countries and ones like them have just recently overcome their fear of Russia. In Estonia, a bold, vocal Russian minority recently caused a ruckus after a Soviet war memorial was moved, thus deepening the fears of the former Warsaw pact countries.

The countries in question are more ‘Atlanticist’ than the so-called ‘old Europe,’ and so place great importance on their military ties with the US. That’s why they stood with the US over Iraq. Although Washington says this missile shield is meant to counter the threat from Iran, Moscow wants to turn the issue into a new Cold War. It’s here that its provocation against Turkey comes in, because in making this surprising suggestion Putin referred to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and so he aims to control Washington through Turkey and spoil Turkish-US relations.

In doing this, of course Putin knows that Turkish-US relations are very bad right now, anti-American sentiments have reached a peak in Turkey, there is no consensus between Ankara and Washington concerning the Iran issue and even Turkey’s military wing is talking about getting involved in strategic relations with Moscow. If Putin’s suggestion is carried through, clearly Turkish-American ties will suffer further damage due to public criticism, and Iran won’t tolerate it. So Ankara sees Putin’s suggestion as a nonstarter. On the other hand, this suggestion shows that if Turkey directs all of its attention in one direction, for example, Iraq, it can be used as a tool in conflicts between global powers. In other words, there are certain signs that Turkey’s strategic location, which was considered an advantage during the Cold War, might slowly turn into a dangerous curse. In sum, if Turkey limits its threat perception to Iraq alone, it won’t be able to see dangers from other places.

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Pertinent Links:

1) Putin’s Provocation