DAR AL HARB/ISLAM - HOLY LAND: TEHRAN CALLING THE SHOTS IN GAZA VIA HAMAS

GAZA: TEHRAN'S GREATER GAME
MULLAHS MANEUVER HAMAS HEAVIES
by Amir Taheri

WHO sets Hamas strategy? As the radical Palestinian movement braces itself for what could be a long struggle against its rival Fatah, if not a full-blown civil war, the question merits more than mere academic interest.

Just days after Hamas staged its coup to achieve exclusive control of Gaza, it's now clear that the military operation launched against the positions of the Palestinian security forces in the strip was never discussed in the Islamist organization's Consultative Assembly (shura).

Well-placed sources close to Hamas tell me that, had the issue been brought up, a majority of shura members most likely would have opposed the coup de force, which has divided the Palestinians as never before. Many believe that even ousted Prime Minister Ismail Haniya, the man who headed the first Hamas-led Cabinet, is "less than enthusiastic" about the operation.

"Only a few people knew about the scheme," says a member of the Palestinian National Assembly who, though close to Hamas, is an independent. "Many Hamas leaders knew that by seizing Gaza and expelling Fatah they would be burning all bridges."

Haniya appears to have placed his hopes on an impending mediation by Saudi Arabia to persuade Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Fatah's leader, to put all security forces under a neutral command. The issue of Fatah's armed forces in Gaza did not come up in the secret talks that led to the Mecca accord a few weeks ago. Nevertheless, there was an implicit understanding that Fatah would transfer control of the bulk of its armed groups in Gaza to the so-called national-unity government formed under Saudi patronage.

Tehran, meanwhile, was concerned that a Hamas-Fatah deal would strengthen those in the Syrian leadership who dislike what they see as their country's increasing vassalization to Tehran. The same Syrian leadership elements recently opened an indirect dialogue with Israel and received some encouraging hints from Israeli Premier Ehud Olmert.

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Pertinent Links:

1) GAZA: TEHRAN'S GREATER GAME