DAR AL HARB/ISLAM - THE WEST/IRAN:

Time is on Iran’s side as it hurtles towards nuclear weapons barrier
by Bronwen Maddox

The test of whether the world really wants to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons comes now.

Yesterday Iran smashed through yet another deadline without a flicker of a response to demands that it halt its nuclear programme. But the stakes are higher than they have been for a year. The International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations watchdog, produced a new report yesterday giving warning that Iran has made significant progress in its nuclear efforts in the past three months, after a year when it seemed that it was bogged down in mastering essential techniques.

The IAEA still estimates that it would take Iran between four and eight years to build a nuclear weapon – if that were its true goal, something that the country denies. But the IAEA’s warning is clear: Iran has now reached the point where time is the only real barrier between it and nuclear weapons. Efforts in the coming days by the US and Britain to rally support in the United Nations Security Council for a third, harsher set of sanctions against Iran will be helped by the tough talk from President Sarkozy of France. In his first detailed comments on the stand-off since taking office, Sarkozy said that the notion of a nuclear-armed Iran was unacceptable. He added that “one should not hesitate to toughen the sanctions”.

France, with the US and Britain, has been one of the most vigorous advocates of sanctions, with the support also of Germany, Russia and China. The Iranian national news agency said yesterday that it would use foreign exchange reserves to finance a $2 billion (£1 billion) development of parts of its huge South Pars gasfield after French financiers pulled out.

In December the Security Council extended sanctions to key officials and some industrial projects, while the US has leant on allies to cut finance. But Western officials have been perturbed by concessions to Iran mooted by Mohamed ElBaradei, the IAEA Director-General.
Several regard him as too soft towards Iran. They are dismayed by his suggestion of letting Iran keep some uranium enrichment, the most controversial work, despite their demand for this to be frozen before any talks begin. He argues that the world must accept that Iran has almost mastered the process.

The IAEA’s report says that Iran has installed 1,640 enrichment centrifuges, arranged in ten “cascades”, moving towards industrial scale from the research-level work of a few months ago. The IAEA believes that Iran has been installing cascades at a rate of one every week to ten days. It could have 3,000 centrifuges working by the end of June. Its aim is 54,000. Enrichment, the most difficult process to master in turning uranium into fuel, can also make material for weapons.

The IAEA is also worried that Iran plans to develop a heavy-water reactor to make bomb-grade plutonium, a second route to getting weapons. Iran has said that it will no longer give the IAEA notice of its plans on such sites. In retaliation for sanctions, it has curbed the scope of inspectors.

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Pertinent Links:

1) Time is on Iran’s side as it hurtles towards nuclear weapons barrier