DAR AL HARB/ISLAM: THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS IF KOSOVO BECOMES INDEPENDENT

Kosovo and its impact in the Balkan political scene
By Ioannis Michaletos

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Possible developments if Kosovo becomes independent

First and foremost the presence of the Serbian minority would be in grave danger; therefore a secession of the Northern part of the country could not be excluded for reasons mainly relating to providing humanitarian support for the fleeing Serbs from the South of Kosovo.
Secondly, similar claims for independence-Or union with Serbia- would most certainly risen from the Serbian component of Bosnia-Herzegovina that directly implies the disintegration of the Federation and the absorption of the Croatian part to Croatia as well. The landlocked Muslim unit would be isolated and in need of international assistance indefinitely. The recent remarks of the German Ambassador to Serbia regarding the status of Voivodjina may reflect the consensus in wider circles of a “Hungarian issue” that would surely draw Serbia, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia into a regional conflict and further empower Russia so as to dictate European policy in the doorsteps of Germany! In essence a series of minority related conflicts could be come out the Pandora box once the Kosovo is declared independent and collapse the established stability in Eastern Europe and beyond.

A third probable outcome in the mid and long term would be the initiation of a process relating to the creation of a wider or “Great Albania”. Even though this concept is not supported –At least officially – by the Albanian government in Tirana; the hardliners in Pristina and in the Albanian Diaspora seem superficially confident in pursuing a goal that would ultimately ruin the Balkans and bring about a situation not seen since the early 20th century and the era of the disintegration of the Ottoman Empire. A series of conflicts that will include most states and finally resulting in inflaming local nationalistic passions, possibly to an extent that could historically damage Albanian posture in the region. This is another “Pandora box” to-be-opened and this time contradictory to the ancient Greek mythology, “Hope” is not going to stay in the box, at least for a generation or so.

The claim for an independent Kosovo is not a regional issue but rather a Pan-European one. The demands for an independent Kosovo due to an Albanian majority do not have any legal status since there are countless of European –And world regions- with similar characteristics but the obligation to create nation states once every while would lead to a third World War soon enough and without having to worry about nations afterwards. The 21st century is a far cry from the Serbia, Greek or Bulgarian nationalism of the 19th one when the nation state was created in the ruins of the decaying Ottoman Empire. The modern Albanian nationalism is historically backward and presents a clear menace to regional stability that amongst other would endanger the strategy of the West in relation to Russia -and most importantly- to the long term containment of the Muslim world.

The only way forward for the Balkans to progress, to be invited thoroughly to the European family and finally be able to challenge the coming 21st century perils; is to combine forces and construct plans for a loose networked federation based in the ability of its main state units to cooperate and coordinate. In such case the Albanian factor is the one and major obstacle that tends to drift the Balkans back to disturbing eras of nationalism, irredentism and fanaticism. It is more demanding than ever for every nation in the region to perform its duty for the benefit of all and the ones who haven’t should seriously think the consequences of their actions towards their neighbors and to those that assisted them to an extent not easily found in any historical textbook.


Pertinent Links:

1) Kosovo and its impact in the Balkan political scene

2) Serbianna