Iran and US: Chances of Accidental Confrontation
by Sir Cyril Townsend, Arab News
The long-running crisis over Iran’s apparent, but denied, determination to acquire nuclear weapons has moved to a higher level, with Tehran’s claim to have made a dramatic leap forward with its nuclear program. I would suggest this is now the No. 1 issue before the United Nations Security Council.
Iran is very much to be blamed for this crisis, which is most certainly damaging the Iranian economy through lack of outside investment. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s infamous description of Israel as a “disgraceful blot” that should be “wiped off the map”, while based on similar remarks by his predecessors, was bound to concentrate attention on what Iran might be up to. It increased the general feeling - not just within the US-EU bloc - but also in the Arab Gulf states, that some action against Iran had become necessary.
President Ahmadinejad has been boasting. Just a few days ago he claimed his country had started enriching uranium on an “industrial scale”. If true, Iran would be in breach of three UN resolutions. He threatened the big powers to respect Iran’s rights or his country would “reconsider its treatment toward them.”
Later, Ali Larijani, with whom No. 10 Downing Street dealt with over the release of the 15 British hostages, followed the president by suggesting Iran had 3,000 centrifuges to assist with fuel for electricity generation or - as its critics allege - for one or more nuclear warheads. However, experts in other countries tend to think Iran is still some way from mastering uranium enrichment.
The Iranian government sought to make much publicity out of its alleged nuclear success by calling for a “National Nuclear Day”, its first, which will not have amused its neighbors. School bells rang out across the land. Last autumn the Iranian president said: “The Iranian nation will never abandon its obvious right to peaceful nuclear technology.”
Most countries at the United Nations, and not least Western countries, do not for a moment disagree that Iran has a right, like any other country, to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. It is a fact that worldwide there is a growing interest in nuclear technology, as the demand for energy grows and the need to cut back on carbon emissions becomes more obvious and important.
In late May the UN Security Council will review Iran’s nuclear compliance or lack of it. It will be recalled the Security Council got involved after the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) referred Iran to it. The IAEA believed Iran had not kept to the rules and had behaved in an underhand manner. It will be remembered also the United Kingdom, Germany and France together spent two years trying to mediate with Tehran, before finding their mediation had reached a “dead end”.
It is well known that there are those in Iran who are less than enthusiastic over the policies and approach of their controversial President. The imposition last month of fresh UN sanctions seemed to have caught the regime by surprise and certainly alarmed its opponents.
The Times’ international expert, Bronwen Maddox, has reminded her readers that here is a country “that has been prevented by sanctions and lack of expertise from building refineries to turn its own oil into petrol.” She believed it cannot even make spare parts for its national airline.
According to The Week (April 14): “... over the past year hard-liners have come under increasing attack from pragmatists who want better relations with the West.”
Experts appear to agree that if Iran is working flat out to make a nuclear weapon it will need some five years to succeed. Thus for the moment there is no imminent nuclear threat and there is time for both cooperation and negotiation with Iran to find a satisfactory answer. Moderate factions in that vast country need our support and encouragement to alter policies that harm Iran and put it in some potential danger.
My worry is that America and Israel will not necessarily agree with such thoughts. Israel has claimed Iran’s nuclear program “can be destroyed”.
I am sure there are neoconservatives in powerful places in Washington who believe that this international issue must be brought to a head before President George Bush leaves the White House. Of course, such folk are not thinking of an invasion but targeted strikes throughout Iran against nuclear facilities.
There is at present a real danger that the military confrontation between the United States and Iran could occur accidentally. Both sides are trigger-happy, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps could be out of control of the politicians. The Gulf is looking extremely dangerous.
Pertinent Links:
1) Iran and US: Chances of Accidental Confrontation
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