DAR AL HARB / ISLAM - E.U./IRAN: E.U.'S LEADERS ARE SIMPLY DITHERING

Europe's Iranian dreamworld
by Charles Tannock

Weeks into the crisis triggered by Iran's illegal capture of 15 British naval personnel, the European Union's irresolute and contradictory approach is making matters worse. Faced with a country whose leader is bent on acquiring nuclear weapons, the EU's leaders are simply dithering, fearing that the fire next door in Iraq could somehow spread.

The latest crisis proves again that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cannot be trusted. Following the ambush of the U.K. forces, the Iranian authorities dissembled as to their exact location at the time of their abduction, which was subsequently proven by the U.K. government to have been in Iraqi territorial waters operating under the authority of U.N. resolutions and with the express consent of the Iraqi government.

What Ahmedinejad appears to want are bargaining chips to secure the release of six Iranians who were aiding the Iraqi insurgency before being captured by the United States. The EU's reluctance to match America's robust language on Iran is emboldening him. Ahmedinejad can sense an international community divided, and like his fellow pariah leader, North Korea's Kim Jong-il, he is exploiting that division at every opportunity.

The uniquely dangerous combination of a nuclear Iran, which seeks to inspire the Shia in the Gulf states to rise up against their Sunni masters, coupled with Ahmedinejad's millenarian mysticism, poses an existential threat to Israel, which Ahmadinejad has threatened to "wipe off the map." It also threatens to touch off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. And, if Iran succeeds in acquiring long-range ballistic missiles, the security threat will become global.

Indeed, the established concept of nuclear deterrence through "mutual assured destruction," which kept the peace between the Soviet Union and NATO, may not apply with a ruler like Ahmadinejad, who believes in the sacred merits of martyrdom. MAD simply won't work for a mad man who is guided by quasi-messianic certitude.

Those who believe that Ahmedinejad is a bluffer and a buffoon who would pull back from the brink may be fundamentally misreading his psychology.

It is past time for Europe's leaders to grasp the reality of the situation. The possibility of degrading Iran's nuclear weapons program through military action cannot be totally discounted, although it should of course be the last option and would be immensely risky even if militarily possible. Yet there is much more that EU leaders can do to undermine the regime economically.

...



Pertinent Links:

1) Europe's Iranian dreamworld