DAR AL ISLAM - IRAN: AHMADINEJAD & IRAN SENDING A MESSAGE

Analysis: Iranian President Ahmadinejad sends a signal
By Yossi Melman,
Haaretz Correspondent

The border between Iraq and Iran on the Shatt al-Arab waterway has been in dispute for decades. Thus, the possibility that British Royal Marines were inside Iranian territorial waters when they were abducted should not be entirely discounted. But it would be naive to think that the incident in the Persian Gulf was coincidental - especially in view of its timing.

The incident occurred a day before the United Nations Security Council convened to decide on further sanctions in view of Tehran's refusal to heed the international demand it cease its nuclear enrichment program. In response, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad canceled his appearance before the Security Council, where he was supposed to present Iran's position.

The cancellation may also be the result of excessive caution on the part of Iran's rulers, particularly in view of the disappearance from Turkey of Ali Askari, former head of the Al-Quds Brigade, the elite unit of the Revolutionary Guard. Askari most likely defected to the West about six weeks ago. The Iranians say he was kidnapped.

Several months earlier, an elite U.S. unit raided the Iranian consulate in Irbil, northern Iraq, and arrested five Iranians, possibly intelligence agents. Iran maintains that they enjoyed diplomatic immunity.

Iran has attributed various subversive activities, carried out by opposition and separatist groups, to the CIA and MI6 agents. Above all hovers the possibility of a U.S. attack against Iran's nuclear installations.

Following the disappearance of Askari, Iranian analysts with ties to the regime wrote that Iran could respond with abductions of its own. It is possible that the arrest of the British troops is Iran's countermove. Such action against U.S. troops would have been unlikely because of concerns of a severe American response. From Iran's point of view, the British are a 'soft' target, and a convenient way to signal it will respond to any assault on its sovereignty.

If the British Marines are not released in a few days, as happened in a similar incident in 2004, the crisis my take a sharp turn for the worst.


Pertinent Links:

1) Analysis: Iranian President Ahmadinejad sends a signal