DAR AL HARB - U.K.: 2000 (MOST LIKELY A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE) JIHADISTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM

2000 UK Islamists plotting attacks
Correspondents in London
February 26, 2007

THE threat of homegrown terrorists attacking Britain is greater now than at any time since the September 11 attacks in the US, according to a leaked intelligence document.

More than 2000 British-based Islamic terrorists are believed to be plotting attacks, according to a government threat assessment prepared this month and seen by The Sunday Telegraph.

The number is far greater than was previously thought by the security services.

"The scale of al-Qa'ida's ambitions towards attacking the UK and the number of UK extremists prepared to participate in attacks are even greater than we previously judged," the newspaper quoted the document as saying.

"We still believe that AQ (al-Qa'ida) will continue to seek opportunities for mass-casualty attacks against soft targets and key infrastructure. These attacks are likely to involve the use of suicide operatives."

The document was being circulated between the Home Office, Defence Ministry, M15 intelligence agency and Scotland Yard's Anti-Terrorist Branch.

MI5 believes that soft targets, such as the transport system and economic targets such as the City of London and Canary Wharf, are most at risk.

The Home Office declined to comment on the report, but said in a statement that security arrangements were under constant review.

"As (MI5 director-general) Eliza Manningham-Buller has stated publicly, the threat of terrorism in the UK is very real and includes the intent to kill people and damage our economy," the statement said.

Ms Manningham-Buller said in November that 1600 people were suspected of involvement in terrorist plots against British targets.

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The report also said Afghanistan was expected to increasingly become a magnet for Islamic extremists seeking to fight Western military forces.

"With violence in Afghanistan intensifying, and therefore receiving greater media attention, the country may well become more attractive as a venue for foreigners wishing to fulfil their Jihad ambitions," the report said.

The document also reveals that al-Qa'ida has grown into a world-wide organisation with a foothold in virtually every Muslim country in North Africa, the Middle East and central Asia.

It says that al-Qa'ida's influence extends from North Africa, including Egypt, through to Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan, and into Somalia and Sudan. Al-Qa'ida is "resilient and effective" in Iraq, its "operating environment and financial position" in Pakistan has improved and a new group had emerged in Yemen.

The paper said the assessment of a resurgent al-Qa'ida comes two years after Western intelligence said the terror group was virtually a spent force, disrupted by counter-terrorist operations around the world.

In July 2005, the Pentagon obtained a letter written by Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qa'ida's deputy leader, stating that the organisation had lost many of its leaders and that it had virtually resigned itself to defeat in Afghanistan. Al-Qa'ida's lines of communication, funding and structure had been severely damaged.

Jonathan Eyal, the director of international security at the Royal United Services Institute, told the paper the al-Qa'ida revival was down to the West's inability to kill or capture Osama bin Laden and that wars in Afghanistan and Iraq made matters worse.

A senior British political source told the paper the picture painted by the document was "particularly bleak and unlikely to improve for several years".


Pertinent Links:

1) 2000 UK Islamists plotting attacks