DAR AL HARB / ISLAM - U.S.A. / IRAN: "IF YOU WANT PEACE, PREPARE FOR WAR"

Want peace? Prepare for war
BY CLAUDE SALHANI

IF YOU want peace, prepare for war," counsels an old saying by Flavius Vegetius Renatus, a writer on military affairs of ancient Rome. The original Latin expression, "Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum," comes from one of his two known works, "Epitoma Rei Militaris."

Several centuries later his advice appears to be heeded by both the United States and Iran.

While Mohamed ElBaradei, the chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, met with Iran’s top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani in the Austrian capital, Vienna, to look for "new ways and means to start negotiations" at an eleventh hour meeting earlier this week, the United States, and Iran continued to prepare for war.

In some Washington circles rumours of a possible military confrontation between the United States and the Islamic republic continue to be the talk of the town. Although several officials in the Bush administration, including the president himself, as well as Robert Gates his new secretary of Defense made a point of saying that the US was not looking for a pretext to go to war with Iran, rumours persist.

Still, in keeping faithful to the Latin adage mentioned at the start of this column, the US military will have its second carrier task force in the Gulf as of this week when the USS John C. Stennis joins up with the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower.

Additionally, a report from the British Broadcasting Corporation based on unnamed diplomatic sources, said US military war planners are drawing up detailed contingency plans in case President Bush decides that he has no other options but to launch an attack on Iran. These plans, according to the BBC, calls for targeting more than just Iran’s nuclear processing sites; they include plans to go after most of Iran’s military infrastructure, such as airfields, missile launching sites, ammunition dumps, command and control centres, etc.

Given the fact a sizable part of the US military is currently engaged in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a new ground campaign in Iran is unimaginable. At least one would hope so. Instead, the US might be tempted to emulate the tactics used by Israel during its month-long war against the Lebanese Hezbollah last August, limiting its actions to aerial and naval engagements. More on that in a moment.

And while the US is flexing its military muscles in the Gulf, Iran’s revolutionary guards are carrying out their own military exercises. Is it just a coincidence or are the Iranians also preparing for war?

Back to the air war theory: The United States no doubt dominates the air and sea lanes around Iran and beyond. But as was demonstrated last August when Israel fought Hezbollah in the Lebanon, restricting military operations to purely aerial bombardments without committing infantry divisions is a recipe for disaster. But then again committing US infantry troops in a battle on Iranian soil would be a disaster, too. It would be recreating a quagmire similar to the one in Iraq, only multiplied many times over.

As one long time observer of US foreign policy pointed out, "So far no one has raised Iran’s shore-to-ship or ground-to-ship missile capabilities. It seems to be that all the maneuvers and exercises they have conducted — another one is about to get underway — shows considerable short and medium range missile skills. How vulnerable do US ships become? A lucky shot on an aircraft carrier would be the shot heard around the world for years to come."

Difficult as it might seem given the level of protection deployed around a carrier, it is not impossible. Who would have thought that Hezbollah could sink an Israeli warship last summer?
But with a bit of hope that diplomacy and common sense will prevail we may never find out if Iranian missiles are able to reach US warships, or if a US aerial campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities is feasible.

Back on the political front neither side is backing down. Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he was ready for talks but rejected US preconditions that the Islamic Republic freeze its nuclear works. And President Bush insisted Iran freeze its nuclear programme.

There might still be a ray of hope however if Iran were to accept to have Russia process its uranium — an option that remains on the table, along with preparations for war.


Pertinent Links:

1) Want peace? Prepare for war