U.S.A.: "RADICAL" ISLAM ON THE RISE (NOTHING RADICAL ABOUT IT, BUT GOTTA USE THE TERM TO BE P.C. & TO REFLECT THE AUTHOR'S THOUGHTS)

Rising tide of radical Islam

About two years ago, I posed a hypothesis. In a Sept. 15, 2004, column I threw an idea against the wall to see if it would stick, "Militant Islamists have already lost ... Ever since 9/11, the ideological and political goals they are pursuing began receding from them." In a nutshell, I posited that strong western responses to terrorism, coupled with Islamic public opinion turning away from extremism, meant that "as a worldwide existential threat, radical Islam is receding."


Well, scratch one hypothesis. In my own defense, I wasn't convinced of it myself and the whole point was to test it to see if it would hold water. I even provided criteria for that purpose, which are worth reviewing with a critical eye today. The first three are good questions, but are hard to measure objectively:

Are more terrorist leaders and cells being apprehended?It's difficult to know this without inside information, and even if we did, would more apprehensions mean we're draining the swamp, or the swamp is getting bigger?

How many new terrorist recruits are there, and how many quit rather than become martyrs?Many "recruits" just talk rather than fight, and I suspect many "committed martyrs" give up after a being hunted in Iraq or Afghanistan. But again, it's tough to quantify.

Can extremists mount another major attack on U.S. soil? We haven't suffered another 9/11, but we all know that could change. Most terrorism experts caution it's not a matter of "if", but "when." And is a "major" attack the only meaningful criterion? What would the impact be of a series of small-scale terrorist attacks across the U.S? That's particularly relevant after the last week's arrest of Derrick Sharrif, an American citizen and convert to Islam. Shareef was plotting to detonate hand-grenades in the CherryVale mall in Rockford, Ill., during the Christmas shopping rush. The point is, we're still very vulnerable.

My other criteria are more definable. And as I review them now, things look pretty dark:

Can representative government take hold in Iraq?It's not looking good right now. I still believe we did the right thing going to Iraq, and know how distorted a picture the media, and the anti-war-anti-Bush lobby portray of what happens there. But with Democratic control of the House and Senate, and the Baker-Hamilton Commission basically issuing a public surrender document, the chances of success there are declining.

Will elections in Afghanistan be meaningful or will the warlords take over again? The election of a functioning government in Afghanistan was important, but the power of the drug-funded warlords remains. The Taliban are still dangerous, and knowledgeable sources I respect say this coming spring could be a real challenge. Afghanistan was the "quiet front" for a while, but no more.

Will key Muslim countries (Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) fall to Islamic extremism? While none of these have turned into another Iran, consider what has happened elsewhere. Somalia is now controlled by radical Islamists, and is becoming a new enclave for al-Qaida and other terrorist groups. Hamas was elected as the government of Palestine, and Hezbollah has even greater power in Lebanon. And Pakistan's government has basically ceded control of its northern border area, Waziristan, to elements of the Taliban and al-Qaida remnants.

Will "moderate" Islamic figures and organizations become more prominent? It hasn't happened yet, I'm afraid. This is probably my biggest disappointment. In a recent column, I mentioned this. Where are the moderate Muslims? If they're out there, they need to get a lot louder, and a lot more visible.


Pertinent Links:

1) Rising tide of radical Islam