DAR AL HARB - U.S.A. - WASHINGTON D.C.: THE MILLENIUM CHALLENGE 2002 SIMULATION

U.S. military simulation haunts Pentagon

The U.S. military, in a move that returned to haunt it, fixed a simulation in which Iran sunk 16 major warships in the Persian Gulf.

Former and current officers said the Pentagon was stunned by the results of a classified $250 million war-game in which Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps speedboats overcame much larger and more powerful U.S. Navy vessels. In the 2002 simulation, which emerged as an actual threat in a series of IRGC confrontations over the last six weeks, nearly the entire U.S. fleet was sunk within 10 minutes.

The Pentagon was so alarmed by the results that they canceled the simulation and ordered another exercise. Critics said the Pentagon action silenced what has clearly become a threat to the U.S. Navy in the Gulf.

But other officials said then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his successor, Robert Gates, recognized the threat and quietly ordered the development of counter-measures. They said some of the systems would reach maturity over the next year.

The Millennium Challenge 2002 simulation, scheduled to last three weeks, pitted the U.S. Navy, termed the Blue Team, against IRGC, dubbed the Red Team. The Blue Team was comprised of an aircraft carrier, cruisers and amphibious vessels that could not resist the onslaught of scores of Iranian Navy speedboats.

"Three days into Millennium Challenge, we attacked with more cruise missiles from more directions and more locations at sea and the air and on land than I knew their systems were capable of handling," Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper, who served in the war game as commander of a Red Team force, recalled.

Van Riper said the destruction of the U.S. force—meant to take place in the Strait of Hormuz—took no more than 10 minutes. He said the navy was overwhelmed by the sheer number of speedboats, supported by land-based missiles and armed with machine guns, rockets and explosives.

IRGC demonstrated a scaled-down version of the simulation in speedboat encounters in the Strait of Hormuz with the U.S. Navy in December and January. In only one of the three cases did the U.S. Navy vessels fire in warning.

"It's clear, strategically, where the Iranian military has gone," said Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. "We’ve been focused on this strategic shift toward their small, fast boats."

In Millennium Challenge 2002, comprised of 13,500 military personnel in 18 live and simulated exercises, the U.S. Navy was faced by Iranian cruise missiles fired from land and aircraft. Officials acknowledged that the Pentagon was so stunned by the simulated defeat that it ordered another war-game.

This time, Van Riper, a former commander of the National War College, was not allowed to use swarm tactics or his method of overcoming U.S. electronic warfare tools. The methods included the use of coded messages in calls to Shi'ite Muslim prayer.

"And from that point on, the exercise was scripted," Van Riper recalled. "Each day there were e-mails and power point briefs saying exactly what was going to happen."

Still, officials said, the simulation was cited in arguments by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Pentagon not to wage war against Iran. Van Riper, a life-long Republican, blamed Rumsfeld for not sufficiently building and preparing the U.S. military.

"We had a secretary of defense who was not interested in what the world was all about and did not think deeply about the problems," said Van Riper. "He has got us into tremendous difficulty, and I am not sure that we're going to get out easy."
...



Pertinent Links:

1) U.S. military simulation haunts Pentagon