DAR AL ISLAM: POTENTIAL WATER CONFLICTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Potential Water Conflicts in the Middle East
By: Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli

At a Capitol Hill briefing on June 6, 2007, Senior Analyst of MEMRI's Middle East Economic Studies Program, Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli addressed staff of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on water poverty and potential water conflicts in the Middle East.

Dr. Raphaeli will be the editor of MEMRI's upcoming Economic Blog. The blog will provide its readers with economic news from the Middle East as well as analysis of major developments and trends.

The following is the paper Dr. Raphaeli presented at the briefing:


Introduction

This briefing comprises two parts: part one offers an introduction to the water poverty in the Middle East, part two focuses on three potential areas of conflict: [1]

Part One: Water Poverty in the Middle East

There are common issues regarding water scarcity in the Middle East:

· The Middle East is the world’s most-water stressed region. Most of the region’s countries cannot meet current water demand.

· The average availability of water is 1200 cm [cubic meters] per person per year, projected to be halved by 2050 (This compares to a global average of 8,900 cm per person per year today and about 6,000 cm per person per year in 2050.

· Aquifers are over-pumped and water quality is deteriorating, with consequences for human health, agricultural productivity, and the environment.

· Unreliable water services are prompting people to migrate in search of better opportunities.

· About 60% of the region’s water is transboundary i.e., water which flows across international borders, leaving a number of countries, including Egypt, Iraq and Syria, to be affected by decisions made upstream by riparian countries. The Dependency Ratio-i.e., the share of the total renewable water resources originating outside the country: Egypt 96.9%; Syria 80.3%; Iraq 53.3%, and Jordan 22.7%. Hence, agreements on water allocation are crucial.

· The Middle East has the highest percent of total renewable water resources withdrawal (about 75 percent). Distant second is South Asia with 25 percent and the lowest is Latin America and the Caribbean at about 2 percent.

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Pertinent Links:

1) Potential Water Conflicts in the Middle East